Anything Smart

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Practical Thinking for Busy People

To be PRACTICAL thinkers we have to be able to make reasonably good decisions without spending 12 hours per day doing research. We have to be able to do this even in areas where we don't have expertise.

How is this possible? Even if we can't expect to make PERFECT decisions - and never make a mistake - can we at least find a way to make GOOD decisions given the very limited amount of time most of us have available for research?

Let's take a look at the Senate health care bill as an example.

To be honest I don't have time to read the Senate health care bill. To be even more honest I might not understand the bill even if I did have time to read it. Still, I feel like I have to know SOMETHING about this bill. I feel like I have to know enough to decide if I should call my Senator and say "support it" or "reject it."

So what can I do? Well, what if someone with more time and expertise than I have reads the bill and reports on it? Maybe I can rely on them.... In fact, this is exactly what the Congressional Budget Office does. I feel confident the people at the CBO are smart enough to understand this bill better than I would. Of course, the CBO might make a mistake but I certainly trust them more than I trust politicians who are arguing about a partisan political issue. So using the CBO report to help me make a decision about this bill seems like a good potential strategy.

Sadly, it turns out, I don't have time to read the CBO report either! Even more sadly, I might not have the background knowledge or expertise to even understand the CBO report. So what can I do now? Can I find someone who can read the CBO report and kind of summarize it for me?

Fortunately, many newspapers and news magazines have done just that. I will turn to a magazine I like and trust: The Atlantic. I have a reasonable level of confidence in the writers at this magazine. I think they are smart and honest so let me see what they say about the CBO report.

This is what I found in the article below which reports on the CBO report for the Senate health care bill:

The Senate health plan will increase the number of uninsured Americans by 22 million over the next 10 years.
Premiums will go up at first but then come down to less than what they are now.
For many people total costs will rise, however, because plans will cover less and deductibles will be higher.
The government will save $321 billion over 10 years. (Since the federal budget is approaching $4 trillion this means we will save less than 1% of the budget.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/cbo-senate-republican-bill-22-million/531663/

Summarizing what I learned from this article I get:

Many more people without insurance
Total costs higher
Coverage less
Savings negligible...

My conclusion: BAD PLAN! Try again. So now I know I should call my Senator and say "Reject this bill!" And if he says "Why?" I even have bullet points to share and a source to reference so I don't sound like an idiot.

If I have a little more time I could read a second article in another magazine to see if it basically agrees with this one. If I wanted to be very careful I could try to read one article from a liberal magazine and one article from a conservative magazine. If they both agree on certain key points about the CBO report I can probably be pretty sure that is the truth about what is in the CBO report.

In the example I am writing about in this essay I am relying on the CBO report to help me decide whether I should support the Senate health care bill or not and I am relying on one or two news articles to help me understand what is in the CBO report.

Now I admit, if I have the time and the expertise to read the whole Senate health care bill and understand it and make a decision about it then that is what I should do. If I DON'T have the time and expertise to do that then this little essay describes a way to make a reasonable decision anyway. This "shortcut" method is not perfect but it is PRACTICAL. It is certainly better than making a decision based solely on feelings or partisan speeches, certainly better than doing nothing, certainly better than throwing up my hands in despair.

So this is what I call PRACTICAL thinking: find a source you trust and understand and that you have time to read. If you have time, check it with a second source. Look at the facts presented and make your best decision.

As a final note, keep your mind open. If someone says your decision is wrong ask them why they think that. If they have good reasons, adjust your thinking accordingly. If they don't have good reasons stick to your original decision and move on to the next issue! :-)

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Sunday, May 28, 2017

Testing Beliefs

Good thinking is the essential foundation for all our efforts to be successful in life, to achieve our goals, to create better lives for ourselves and our families, and a better society for everyone. Whether we are choosing a mechanic to work on our car or a doctor to perform surgery, buying a house or planning for retirement, changing jobs or voting in an election, the quality of our thinking will have a lot to do with whether we succeed or fail, whether we win or lose, whether we make our lives, and our world, better or worse.

Bad thinking, on the other hand, leads to failures and foolish mistakes; it leads to missed opportunities and leaves us at the mercy of manipulators who cunningly make sure they get what they want... without any regard to what is best for us. It can even lead to injustice, or worse: as Voltaire once said, “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”

Learning to think better is a lifelong quest but it begins with the recognition that good thinking is important, vital to our success, in some cases even a matter of life and death, and then making a conscious effort to improve our critical thinking skills.

"Criticism is the examination and test of propositions of any kind which are offered for acceptance, in order to find out whether they correspond to reality or not. The critical faculty is a product of education and training. It is a mental habit and power. It is a prime condition of human welfare that men and women should be trained in it. It is our only guarantee against delusion, deception, superstition, and misapprehension of ourselves and our earthly circumstances."

A lot of critical thinking just comes down to asking ourselves questions about our beliefs and then trying to answer them:

What is it exactly that you believe?
Can you clearly and unambiguously define the words and phrases you use to express your belief?

How important is the belief?
Is it something very important that is worth spending a lot of time on or not? (Deciding which restaurant to have lunch at should not take much time. Deciding which house to buy should take quite a lot of time.)

Why do you believe what you believe?
Do you have strong evidence or just weak evidence?
Can you prove it with a logical argument? (Remember that "proof" comes in different "levels." It can be a matter of probability, or beyond a reasonable doubt, or actually certain, which will usually only happen in mathematics.)
Do you have to depend on expert testimony or can you analyze the evidence for yourself? (Don't be afraid to listen to experts and learn from them. That's what experts are for!)

Do you have time to learn more about your belief by reading articles or books?
How do good thinkers defend your belief?
How do good thinkers oppose your belief?
Which side has the best evidence and the best arguments?

In real life we can't always be sure we know the truth. In cases like that you don't have to be paralyzed.

Can you at least explain why a particular belief is beneficial to you?
Makes you're life better?
Makes society better?

If you can answer these questions in the affirmative then it is OK to keep right on believing something you can't prove. Just don't pretend your belief is based on facts and logic, admit that it is based on your faith and your values rather than some kind of proof.

Whatever else you do, keep thinking and keep learning!

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Sunday, May 21, 2017

Good Cops and Bad Cops - Bad Georgia Cops Assault a Man in Public

What do we do when two police officers beat a man right out in public, in broad daylight, with no excuse?

Unfortunately, that's what we are going to have to find out in Gwinnett County, Georgia.

This barbaric incident occurred about 4:00 PM on Wednesday 12 April 2017 when Sergeant Michael Bongiovanni pulled over 21 year old Demetrius Hollins in Lawrenceville, just outside Atlanta.

According to the sources below Hollis was pulled over for a broken taillight and a missing license plate.

What should have been a simple, and non-violent, stop quickly spiraled out of control.

Bongiovanni ended up arresting Hollis and according to one of the sources below Hollis was tasered multiple times in the course of that arrest.

Master Police Officer Robert McDonald showed up to "help" his supervisor Bongiovanni and a witness got him on video running up to Hollis and stomping or kicking his head while the young man lay handcuffed on the ground.

To give credit to the Gwinnett County Police Department this video led to the firing of McDonald less than 24 hours after the incident.

Then a second video showed up and revealed what had happened a little earlier: Hollis came out of his car, with both hands in the air, and Bongiovanni punched him in the face!

Bongiovanni had never mentioned this punch in his report, and had claimed Hollis resisted arrest, so he was fired for lying.

The department quickly issued a statement: "We are fortunate that this second video was found and we were able to move swiftly to terminate a supervisor who lied and stepped outside of his training and state law."

The statement also says that the video: "...shows the man getting out of the car with both hands up. As he stands with his hands up, [Sergeant] Michael Bongiovanni strikes the man in the face."

Police Chief Butch Ayers added: "...there is literally no excuse for behavior like this" and "...that punch was unreasonable and unnecessary."

The department has now launched criminal investigations on both McDonald and Bongiovanni - and good for them! - that's exactly what they should do!

Bad cops cause pain and suffering and they need to be punished for that. Hollis described his encounter as "the scariest moment of my life."

Hollis's lawyer said "We want them to have to stand before a Gwinnett County judge in a courtroom full of Gwinnett County citizens, with their legs shackled and their hands cuffed behind their back."

There are so many good cops risking their lives to protect us. When we find bad cops like McDonald and Bongiovanni they need to be punished and made into examples.

This link has video of the attack:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-officials-dismiss-89-cases-linked-fired-officers/story?id=46819260

The video is also available here:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/second-georgia-cop-canned-after-violence-caught-on-video-during-arrest/

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/14/us/georgia-gwinnett-county-officers-fired-video-trnd/index.html

http://theinsidekorea.com/2017/04/16/georgia-cop-fired-for-stomping-handcuffed-black-man-in-the/

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[This is the original Good Cops and Bad Cops book. Check it out.]
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Monday, April 24, 2017

Trump's "Little" Conflict of Interest in Turkey

To be honest, and regretfully, I have to say I don't think we have an impeachment case against Trump yet. We might GET one, but as far as I know, we don't have it YET.

Impeachment is a very serious step that could affect the country for generations or even centuries to come. That's NOT the kind of thing you want to play with.

On the other hand, I think it is very likely that Trump will eventually give us a case for impeachment. And when that case gets made it will likely involve conflicts of interest.

This excellent article talks about three conflicts of interest that are already worrying. The one that caught my attention involves Trump and the country of Turkey. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/04/20/Trump-Family-Inc-3-Conflicts-Interest-Could-Pave-Way-Impeachment

Recently President Erdogan held a referendum in Turkey and won great new powers for himself. Many people think it is a bad thing that Erdogan seems to be turning himself into a dictator. Many people think the referendum was won through voter fraud. But Trump? Well, Trump called Erdogan and congratulated him.

Why would Trump congratulate a man who may have just cheated his way into a dictatorship? Is it because he thinks that is what is best for America? Or is it because he has a conflict of interest with his business ventures in Turkey and wants to keep Erdogan favorably disposed towards him?

Maybe you don't believe me when I say Trump has a conflict of interest in Turkey? Let's call a witness... named Donald Trump. This is what he said in an interview back in December 2015: "I have a little conflict of interest [in Turkey] 'cause I have a major, major building in Istanbul. It's a tremendously successful job. It's called Trump Towers — two towers, instead of one, not the usual one, it's two.”

So is Trump making nice with the Turkish strong man to promote America's interests? Or to promote Trump's interests? How can we know?

And that's why the President of the United States should not have business interests in foreign countries.

Sooner or later one of Trump's conflicts of interests is going to sink its teeth into him hang on. And then we will have a real case for impeachment.

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[This book is already making the case for impeaching Trump! Please buy it, read it, let me know how it is! :-)]
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Sunday, April 16, 2017

Good Cops and Bad Cops - "Shot in the face, bleeding heavily."

During a deadly encounter in Chandler, Arizona, Officers Daniel Colwell, 29, and Joshua Pueblo, 34, proved themselves to be good cops who bravely and effectively eliminated a threat to themseleves and to the people around them.

The call, about a trespasser at a Walmart near Phoenix, came in at 6:21 AM. The intruder was 24-year-old Mitchell Oakley who had trespassed on previous occasions but always left before police arrived. On April 23, 2016 Oakely did not leave before police arrived - he waited.

According to one report Officer Colwell spoke with Oakely for several minutes before he started checking for active warrants. Then, as Officer Pueblo approached, Oakely pulled a gun and opened fire.

The shooting only lasted 10 seconds but that was enough for Officer Pueblo to be hit three times, in the arm, the back, and the face. Badly wounded, Pueblo retreated and called for help on his radio, "Help me, help me... shots fired... shot in the face, bleeding heavily." A Walmart employee helped Pueblo with paper towels.

In the meantime Officer Colwell was hit twice in his bullet-proof vest. From the floor the police officer returned fire, quickly hitting the fleeing Oakley five times. One shot hit Oakley in the hand and he dropped his gun, then turned back to pick it up, and died.

The tragedy of this story is that it might have been prevented. Oakley had gotten himself into legal trouble and did time in jail for theft, drugs, and attempted aggravated assault. At the time of the shooting he was depressed about being unemployed and living as a homeless person. His parents lived nearby but thought "tough-love" might help the troubled young man and only allowed him to spend nights at home occasionally.

At one point during his legal troubles the state had found Oakely incompetent to stand trial, unable to aid in his own defense. His mom said he was talking to himself and threatened to kill her. His parents unsuccessfully tried to persuade his probation officer to get mental health care for him.

Then Oakely bought a gun he found advertised on the internet for $200. His half-brother thought about taking the gun away from him, but didn't get around to it in time.

Whatever failures there may have been to prevent this incident, none of them reflect on the skill and courage of Officers Colwell and Pueblo. They were faced with a sudden life-threatening situation where an armed assailant tried to kill them and posed an obvious and imminent threat to everyone in the area. They did their job and they did it well. This is what good cops look like.

For more details, and video of the shooting, check out the links below.

Watch shocking moment....
(Includes video)

Chilling moment....
(Includes video)

10 deadly seconds....
(Includes video)

Suspect killed....

Suspect dead....

Fortunate he's with us....

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